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21 January 2008
GOLD, PLATINUM AND
DIAMONDS TO SHINE ON IN 2008, SAYS ALLIANCE TRUST
·
Mining sector remains a rich seam for
investors, as Asia picks up slack from US
·
Merger of mining giants could trigger
overall sector re-rating
Alliance
Trust, the largest generalist investment trust company listed on the London
Stock Exchange, today forecast that a combination of rising demand from Asian
economies and a continuing global tightness of supply will result in another
strong year for the mining sector. Selective investors will be able to benefit
from exposure to larger players, while the prospect of a mega-merger between
sector giants BHP and Rio could boost mining stocks across the board.
Alliance
Trust expects valuations in the mining sector to continue to increase, benefiting
from a realisation that any US slowdown will not affect the dynamics between
supply and demand, particularly in base metals and copper, since developing Asian
economies will snap up any excess supply.
Global
Oil & Natural Resources Analyst Angus McPhail said: “The prospects for investment in the mining sector look particularly
strong this year, as expectation grows of a mega-merger which could lead to an
overall sector re-rating, while the appetite of India and China for core
commodities shows no sign of abating.”
“The companies that will benefit most
from these factors, along with cost inflation, are those with long mine lives,
high quality assets and low unit costs of production. This equates to larger
players in the industry such as BHP/Rio, Anglo’s, Vedanta and Xstrata."
McPhail
highlights that different commodities have mixed prospects for 2008. The price
of gold will remain high for as long as the dollar remains weak, and diamonds
are also worth looking at, particularly at the quality end of the market. Base metal prices will remain volatile until
fears over the fallout from the sub-prime crisis subside,
however China's demand will help bulk commodities perform: "Bulk commodities will continue to do well,
particularly Australian coal and iron-ore producers, which supply China. Gold
is expected to remain strong but this is very dependent on continued weakness
in the dollar and continuing concern about the fall-out from the sub-prime
crisis. Diamonds, like gold, offer a safe haven to preserve value in uncertain
times. Demand for autocatalysts in the US also means that platinum will do well.
"
Alliance
Trust's latest market view also highlights that there are two factors that
could dim the bright outlook beyond 2008. The first is the growth and
development rate of China and India and secondly, over the longer term, the industry's
efforts to produce composite materials.
McPhail
said: “Significant strides
to develop composite materials, which have better material characteristics than
traditional alloys, will have an impact on the industry. Developments in
alternatives to natural resources will reduce demand for metals as well as
create greater fuel efficiency in the future.
"Currently
China and India are the key drivers behind the mining sector’s fortunes. As
they move from being developing economies to being developed, energy intensity
will fall and, with this, the demand for commodities. This process is a long
one, however, and will not affect mines’ prospects in the medium term."
*The full Market
View is available on www.alliancetrust.co.uk/news_views.htm
- ends -
Notes to Editors
1. Alliance
Trust PLC has been investing since 1888 and is the largest generalist UK
investment trust by assets listed on the London Stock Exchange. It manages
nearly £3bn of assets (as at 30 June 2007).
2. Photographs
of Angus McPhail are available.
Contacts
Jane Holligan, Media Relations
Manager Anna
Schirmer / Stuart Lerman / Anna Moulds Alliance Trust Lansons Communications Tel +44 (0)1382 306064 Tel +44 (0)20 7294 3605 / 3674 / 3681 Mobile 07745
783212 Email alliancetrust@lansons.com Email jane.holligan@alliancetrust.co.uk Web www.alliancetrust.co.uk |