Our portfolio

The view from our Investment Manager, 30 June 2021

Over the second quarter of 2021, the Company’s total shareholder return and NAV total return were 7.3% and 8.4% respectively, with the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) returning 7.3%.

Global equity markets continued to rally over Q2 following the easing of lockdowns, ongoing loose monetary policy and early signs of economic recovery. Historic levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus have provided a consistent tailwind since the Spring of 2020, and there is little evidence these measures will be removed in the near term. The strongest performing regions over the second quarter were the US and China (onshore). Emerging Markets in general lagged global returns, as did the UK, whilst Japan was significantly behind the global average posting a small negative return for the quarter. In terms of styles, whilst leadership seemed to change twice during the quarter, over the full quarter Growth and Quality led, with the MSCI ACWI Growth and Quality indices both outperforming the MSCI ACWI index by over 2%, and Value and small cap lagged by a similar margin. This marked a reversal from the first quarter when projections of increased inflation in developed markets supported Value and small cap factors. The biggest reversal occurred in June when market sentiment changed, in part, due to more hawkish comments from the US Fed that suggested it might act sooner to control inflation. This turned investors towards longer duration Growth stocks better positioned to benefit from such an environment, and away from the pro-cyclical themes that drove market returns in the first quarter.

Within the portfolio, Nvidia, the multinational technology company, contributed the most to the overall performance of the Company, delivering an absolute return of 50%. Nvidia’s proposed $40 billion acquisition of Arm Holdings received support from key stakeholders over the quarter which puts the deal one step closer to being finalised. If successful, the acquisition will accelerate Nvidia’s expansion in Artificial Intelligence computing and open up new markets for the firm. This news comes on top of an excellent earnings report in May, with revenue reaching a record $5.7 billion, up 84% year over year. Alphabet also stood out as a key contributor over Q2, returning 21%, the majority of which was delivered in April after a better-than-expected first-quarter earnings report. In contrast, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc., a provider of private educational services in China, was the most significant detractor from performance over the quarter. The share price of the stock fell as markets became increasingly nervous about the anticipated Chinese government crackdown on the private tutoring industry. However, despite recent falls, the Company’s stock picker believes that given its strong brand, scale, and high-quality offerings, New Oriental is well positioned to benefit from industry consolidation driven by new regulations imposed on the sector.

The Company’s stock pickers continued to search for favourable investments for the portfolio throughout the quarter. A position was established in Restaurant Group, a British chain of restaurants and public houses, which following significant business restructuring is, in the stock picker’s view, well placed to outperform analyst consensus expectations as the UK eases restrictions on the hospitality sector, as is anticipated in July. Elsewhere in the portfolio, the position in Alibaba was reduced, making room for more attractively valued growth opportunities such as Disney. Disney is expected to see continued growth opportunities following the success of its Disney+ streaming service. Disney’s Parks and Movie businesses are also expected to rebound over the course of 2021 and 2022 following COVID-19 disruptions in 2020.

Over the quarter, we maintained the level of gross gearing at the central target level of 10%. Furthermore, we introduced two new managers to the portfolio, Sands Capital (a global growth manager) and Metropolis Capital (a global value manager). The portfolio continues to be structured in a balanced way across ten stock pickers with different investment approaches, resulting in a diversified but high conviction portfolio of stocks.