OUR PORTFOLIO

The view from our Investment Manager, 31 December 2018

Over the quarter, the Trust’s total shareholder return, Net Asset Value (NAV) total return and equity portfolio return were -10.7%, -12.2% and -11.0% respectively, against the MSCI ACWI which returned -10.6% over the same period. Over the full course of 2018, the equity portfolio returned -4.2%, against an index return of -3.3%. While disappointing, this needs to be put in context of a very difficult period for all active managers, and it is important to note that the equity portfolio has still outperformed since the inception of the new mandate.

Key detractors for the quarter included the Trust’s positions in a number of off-benchmark and small cap holdings, which experienced a rough ride through recent market volatility. Baidu, a Chinese internet company that the Trust was invested in, also detracted over the fourth quarter, with the stock price taking a hit in recent months as investors sought to exit stocks with significant exposure to China, following trade concerns.

Over the quarter, underweight positions in a number of major US technology stocks such as Apple, Netflix and Amazon, which for the first three quarters of the year had dragged on relative performance, were significantly additive to the fund’s active return. The Trust’s positions in Barrick Gold, the largest gold mining company in the world, and India-based HDFC Bank were also significant sources of positive performance over the quarter.

During the fourth quarter, heightened market volatility presented opportunities for the Trust’s underlying stock pickers. A position in AstraZeneca, the major global drug manufacturer, was initiated in the portfolio in October. The company entered a strong new product cycle as a result of its focus on R&D and a considerable number of collaborative projects funded by partners. Other familiar large cap names added to the portfolio over the quarter included Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, a position which was re-established in November following a period of stock price and weakness, and US financial information and analytics firm S&P Global, which was purchased in December.

In November, the Trust secured attractively priced, fixed-rate, long dated financing of £60 million through unsecured privately placed notes with maturities of 15, 25 and 35 years. The proceeds were used to repay short term borrowing on existing floating rate facilities and the Trust’s absolute gearing level remained unchanged as a result of the transaction. We expect this to provide the Trust with a long-term benefit through a full market cycle.

We acknowledge that while the Trust has outperformed since the inception of the new approach, calendar year 2018 was disappointing, with the stocks selected by five of the nine managers under-performing. However 2018 was a tough year generally for active managers, with a small number of mega-cap stocks leading the market.

The three that struggled the most were value managers, but their stock selections in particular now look especially attractive on a relative valuation basis. We believe the Trust’s equity portfolio is well positioned to deliver future out-performance, and we continue to hold high conviction in all of the Trust’s equity managers.

Read our Investment Manager’s report for more on our portfolio’s performance over the past month.